Module 9 · Population Health Intelligence · 9.2

Risk Stratification Workbench

Four stratification models over the 96,000 in-scope population. Model transparency is mandatory: class, inputs, refresh date, and known limitations render on every surface. Rising-risk is the RS-1 default lens.

RS-1 Prospective Risk — distribution

Low59,520

Moderate23,040

Rising8,640

High4,800

Model transparency (mandatory)

Model classForward-looking cost/complexity risk per member. HCC-family model with MOD calibration — same model family as contract risk adjustment, prospective stance (one family, two stances).Input domainsClaims, diagnoses, pharmacy, labs, demographicsRefresh date5 Oct 2027Known limitsAFHSR-catchment strata carry a data-sufficiency caveat (registry DQ).

Cross-model matrix · RS-1 × RS-2 (diabetes)

RS-1 ＼ RS-2	<7.0	7.0–8.0	8.0–9.0	>9.0
Low	1,980	720	210	60
Moderate	1,210	1,660	980	540
Rising	420	560	720	980
High	200	226	328	1,110