Module 4 · Portfolio Analytics · 4.6
Trend & Forecasting
What the next period looks like before it arrives — contract trajectories, program ratios, and early-warning tiles. Each tile states its projection basis and horizon. Scoped to Full portfolio.
Contract trajectories
Year 2
-001 Year 2 composite projection
80.1 (from 78.4)
Driver decomposition: D6 access improvement +1.1, D2 PROMs collection +0.6.
Program payment-ratio projections
Period end
-003 period-end payment ratio
61–64% band
From the monthly series (Stage B §7.1): 41.2 → 57.3 through Sep 2027.
Early warnings
Next periodbelow floor
Dr. Youssef Al-Ghamdi projected composite
52 next period (from 55)
Below the Tier 3 retention floor; flagged against his active CAP.
Next period
Dr. Hanan Al-Otaibi projected composite
62 (stable)
Risk-adjusted panel; projected stable.
Rolling
-004 stage 2→3 conversion
Trending down 3 consecutive snapshots
79.5% → 78.6% → 78.0% — linked to the open amendment negotiation on the transaction definition (Stage B §7.3).